Re: Speculation and Supposition


From Ruben:

Isn't it amazing how a small hiring decision can spark a whole discussion in the news media that ultimately doesn't prove anything?

Give anyone an idea or rumour and they can run on about it for weeks with speculations and their own wild interpretations and assumptions of deliberately vague and ambiguous announcements. It happened in the manner which Ruben related earlier, it happened when the Mac Pro came out where people debated whether Apple was ignoring their main market and who was their target market because of the new design of the machine before they were gently reminded we still don't really know what the details of this machine are. It happened when fans jumped on a KyotoAnimation commercial and spread the word about a new 'Swimming shounen' anime when no one really knew the details and cooler heads eventually prevailed - Guys, it's just a CM.

It's just human nature really, to want to know what happens next, to want to play at the guessing game, and it's pretty much the backbone of half of the media industry, feeding their audiences things that will make them want to keep reading, to talk amongst their peers and IF they get it right, well then they have the glory of getting to claim that they were the ones smart enough to predict this. If they don't? Oops, better luck next time - no damage.

It's also what feeds the fanfiction communities. What better past-times than to take vague hints of interest or take those little red herrings and spin them into something greater. What better than to come out reading a particularly suspenseful chapter and wonder if a character will live or die, who will find them, what will happen? Will someone confess, someone kill or be killed, someone find their long lost mother brother sister third cousin once removed sister's brother's father's daughter's mother-in-law's husband father?

I decided long ago that I wouldn't speculate anymore, that things would happen when they did. For works of fiction, it was a waste of time when whatever happened was down to the author anyway - that reminded me about high school, where for a module we were taught that the author holds the power. They control what happens and we can only follow along and take what we are fed, even if we don't like it... but an article is a whole new cup of fish. In fact, our speculation there would just help them overblow the matter further! Well in any case, my predictions in the past were always wrong anyway (or at least I thought so), so in a way it killed two birds with one stone. I didn't have to stress or worry about the outcome if it wasn't the one I wanted, and I didn't have to constantly be wrong either. ;D

Anyway, as my maths teacher used to say: if you assume, you only make an ass out of u (you) and me.